Readers wishing to stretch their minds would do very well to listen to this podcast, featuring thought leader, entrepreneur, educator, author, executive, consultant and business architect Tony Seba.
Tony predicts that the 2020s will be the most disruptive decade in the history of humankind. Why? Because he believes that the cost of most of the things that keep us alive: communications/IT, energy, transportation, food, and materials will all experience a 10+X reduction in cost, and that, historically, whenever that has happened, the incumbent social order collapses and a new entity from outside fills the power vacuum.
When the Roman Empire collapsed and the Dark Ages ensued, it was the territories on the outskirts of the previous empire that rose in prominence: Spain, Portugal, Holland, and principally the UK. When the British Empire collapsed, it was America (also previously an outpost), that rose to become the most powerful force on Earth.
Tony believes that the cost of computing, kWhrs, vehicle miles traveled, protein, and materials (hemp?) are all going to collapse, meaning that anyone can have a fairly pleasant existence for about $250 per month, and that it will be this life without toil that will form the root of the disruption in society.
Incumbents have a distinct disadvantage, which is why they never regain their former hegemony. The “operating system” that made them successful is embedded in their structure, and that OS is not only irrelevant after the collapse; it’s a heavy burden.
So what about some specifics? Tony says that the United States will fail, but that places like California or Seattle might rise. China will fail, but that Shanghai or Shenzhen might rise.
Certainly worth a listen.